The phrase Trump Slump has hit the ground running in both the firearms and anti-firearms communities. Both sides parading the term to try and convince others that firearms sales are way down due to lack of ‘fear-based’ buying. If you’re considering obtaining an FFL you are probably thinking, well now is a terrible time. Fortunately, that’s just not true. Now is actually a great time to get into the market, and to get your Federal Firearms License.
Let’s Talk Trump Slump
The supposed Trump Slump is a perceived downturn in firearm’s sales. The idea is that due to the election of Donald Trump no one is fear buying any more. The firearms industry is like any other and certainly goes through its booms. The Barack Boom is over, but sales haven’t taken a massive hit. All we are really seeing is artificial inflation dying off and people are no longer buying AR lower receivers by the crate.
With the firearms industry, the benefits of a boom are numerous. First, the boom leaves behind new gun owners, who have continued to boost sales and are now fighters in the right to keep and bear arms. People point to the decline of the gun industries stocks as a sure sign of the Trump Slump, but fail to realize there is really only three firearms companies that are publicly traded. Two of the three aren’t just involved in firearms, but massive outdoor brands involved in tons of companies related to the outdoors industry. The third is Sturm Ruger. Of the three, the company that owns Smith and Wesson and Ruger both have shown dips in stock price.
Not to hate on either, but has either company really innovated in any way? Both companies are heavily invested in wheel guns, which aren’t exactly popular with major contracts in law enforcement. While they have their own polymer pistol selection they aren’t exactly producing anything new. As major manufacturers of AR 15s, you’d think they’d be doing okay.
Introducing gun saleswoman of the century
The thing is, every gun store spent all last year stocking up for a perceived Clinton presidency and they were prepared for a massive amount of sales in November, December, January, February and likely into the summer. Sales in November and December are always nuts, but add an anti-gun President and we were looking at another period of artificial inflation.
Dealers and gun stores have lots of inventory still on hand from the perception of another incoming big boom. The guns are selling, its just dealers don’t need to order new guns. How do we know the guns are selling?
I have 200,000 reasons why.
The Black Friday numbers again and it was a record-setting day with over 200,000 NICS checks being run by the FBI. I personally bought a lower receiver and a little Ruger 10/22 I’ve had my eyes on. You know how many NICS checks were sent up for my two guns? Just 1. NICS checks aren’t indicative of how many guns were sold, but simply how many people bought a gun or guns that day.
Outside of that, there was some killer Black Friday sales online. Those online sales won’t be reported as part of NICS until after the gun ships, arrives at an FFL, and is then transferred to the purchaser. Those online Black Friday deals are great for the seller, buyer, and for the smart FFL owner who doesn’t mind cashing in on that sweet transfer money.
What About the Rest of the Year?
The NRA-ILA has been analyzing the industry and watching sales this year to determine just how exactly sales are standing compared to previous years. They found that sales at the beginning of the year increased almost 20% from January to March. They also found that at most there is a 1% drop in sales when you compare similar months and control for holiday seasons.
Let’s face you can’t just have one.
Why is it a Good Time to Get an FFL?
Now’s an excellent time to get an FFL because demand is high and prices are actually somewhat low. There are tons of deals out there right now at the dealer level and at the customer level. Lots of mail-in rebates, extra gear deals and more. This makes it easier for you as an FFL holder to become established. Lowering your initial inventory costs is the dream of every small business owner.
Rumors of the Trump Slump are severely exaggerated. Is a period of artificial inflation over? Yes. Is the gun industry going down the toilet? Not by a long shot. More people than ever are becoming gun owners, and the Barack boom has left behind an entirely new group of gun enthusiasts. Now’s the time to buy in.